When 2009’s Avatar became a huge hit upon its initial release, James Cameron started talking about carrying on the franchise for an additional four films if not more. But then there was a very long wait between the first and second movies (thirteen years) as Cameron was developing the technology he needed to bring the story to the big screen. These films are also very expensive to make, with the first costing around $240 million, the second jumping up as high as half a billion by some estimates, and the third coming back down to around $250 million. And as that third entry prepares to hit the theaters later this month, fans may wonder if the planned fourth and fifth films are still set to follow.
There was only a two-year wait between the second and third installments, and word is that much of the filming has been completed for the fourth entry. So that should come as good news to Avatar fans and likely has it on track for a December 2027 premiere (the sfx and post-production takes a long time for these movies). But for that next entry to happen, the third film will have to turn a profit which is proving increasingly difficult for theatrical releases in the post-COVID environment. Summer 2025 Box Office receipts were down from the prior year, and by October, things were looking even worse for cinemas.
But considering that the Avatar franchise has been a powerhouse in theaters so far, there is reason to hope. The first movie currently stands as the top-grossing film of all time at $2.9 billion in world-wide receipts while the second is at the Number 3 spot with $2.3 billion across the globe. And if that $250 million budget number is correct for Fire and Ash (it’s just an estimate at this point), that film could turn a profit even if it only gets to $1 billion in receipts (working on the assumption that a film needs to make back twice its budget in U.S. ticket sales or three times that worldwide to break even).
That means that unless the third film completely bombs–which seems unlikely–the fourth installment should stay on track, especially since it is well into production. And that is also a positive note for the fifth film even if the fourth one sees diminishing returns at the Box Office. They will likely still go forward with the fifth installment, even if it does not project to be a big hit in theaters, because it has the potential to turn a profit in streaming and in home video sales.
Interestingly, Sam Worthington has said about the third film: “To me, this was always the final battle, the final showdown”. He goes on to say:
I know Jim has ideas for where the saga continues but I also know that he’s kind of rounded off these two movies; they were one movie when he first wrote it and I think his intention was to finish this one with everything he’s got and see how it goes.
From this, is sounds like Fire and Ash will round off the first three movies quite nicely and provide a resolution, and a time jump is planned for the fourth film.
James Cameron has also said that he is willing to walk away from the franchise after the third movie, commenting that “if this is where it ends, cool”. But he does have plans to continue the story if he is not allowed to complete the fourth and fifth films: “I’ll write a book”.
My guess is that, despite the bear-ish Box Office, Avatar: Fire and Ash will perform well in ticket sales and lead to the planned fourth and fifth entries in the franchise. This series has quite a fan following along with plenty of merchandising supporting it as well. So at this point, I expect at least one more Avatar movie and potentially other spin-offs from this property.
Avatar: Fire and Ash releases worldwide on December 19th. You can watch the trailer below.
